Friday, December 25, 2009


There's been a lot of buzz recently about handhistories (isildur,BT,BH etc) so I've decided I should try something similar. after all it sounds like a good business plan:

1. collect handhistories
2. ?
3. profit

after browsing the web for some time I found an archive of 5million hands played on ipoker@50nl 6max this autumn (sept-oct '2009 probably). I dont play on ipoker and I know nothing about players there but I assume there's no much difference between ipoker and FT or PS (and also I comply with their TOS..). I've created a separate database and now I'm importing these hands. It seems that it may take forever - it's been exporting for almost 24hrs so far yet it's imported about 2.7 mil hands. import speed dropped down dramaticaly from 70-80hands/s in the beginning to 33hands/now so I may stop import some time tomorrow.

there's an interesting too that comes with holdem manager which is called 'holdem vision'. basicaly it profiles players at given limit(lag, tag, nits etc) and shows how different stats(VPIP, PFR, AF etc) correlate with their winrates. It also shows ranges in different flop and preflop spots, depending on actions(limpers/raiser/facing 3bet etc), board textures and number of players. I may play with this database on weekends and may write some sort of report here so if anyone has any specific questions post them in comments.

what's the use? well, for example there's an interesting post on 2p2 (link) on facong flop raise. cliffnotes from article that goes with holdem manager:

Post Summary
  • take notes: Always important, but top pair would be easy to get away from if villain only min-raises with sets and you have no other draws. (Now I just got to find the time to enter all this data into my player notes).
  • Not best hand: It's probably safe to say that when min-raised, your top pair hand is behind 75% of the time, or will be by the river without any draws. Maybe a little less than that for your overpair.
  • No Fold Equity: 99% of the time the min-raiser will go on to see a showdown, so don't try to bluff him/her out unless you have a good read/notes.
  • Great Implied Odds: This does give you GREAT implied odds if you have a good draw.
Now this sounds extremely important as I probably lose alot of money in situations like this. I'd also like to check balugawhale's "theorem" (fold when someone raises your turn bet) and examine winning players' tendencies.

ok, so for now some diagrams (based on 2.67mil hands and filtered only players that have min 1000 hands tracked)

breakeven range is +/- 5 bb/100

15-20% vpip - 25% of players are winners
20-25% vpip - 33% of players are winners
25-30% vpip - 31% of players are winners
30-35% vpip - 31% of players are winners
35-40% vpip - 27% of players are winners

10-15% pfr - 25% of players are winners
15-20% pfr - 31% of players are winners
20-25% pfr - 36% of players are winners
25-30% pfr - 32% of players are winners

Post Flop Aggression
AF :: % of winners
1 :: 22
2 :: 27
3 :: 30
4 :: 31
5 :: 24
>15 :: 27

2-4% 3bet - 21% of players are winners
4-6% 3bet - 27% of players are winners
6-8% 3bet - 34% of players are winners
8-10% 3bet - 37% of players are winners
10-12% 3bet - 21% of players are winners
12-14% 3bet - 32% of players are winners

15-20% wtsd - 29% of players are winners
20-25% wtsd - 31% of players are winners
25-30% wtsd - 26% of players are winners
30-35% wtsd - 29% of players are winners
35-40% wtsd - 16% of players are winners
40-45% wtsd - 24% of players are winners

so stats for most winning players:
vpip - 20-25%
pfr - 15-20%
af - 2
3bet - 4-6%
wtsd - 25-30%


  1. this is sick post! nice, very nice work!
    wish u happy holidays and happy new year :)

  2. lol no wonder you havent posted in three weeks, thats a helluva analaysis session.